No Warming Since 1995? Part II

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm

The headlines are exploding with news of climate scientist Phil Jones apparently stating that there has been no significant warming since 1995. Pundits are essentially calling this hook-line-and sinker for evidence that climate change is a hoax. I’ve provided the link to the interview above. Here is the quote that has caused the stir in the media.

“Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.”

Unfortunately, that has now been displayed as the major headline grabber “No warming since 1995”. There is quite a difference between that and what Phil Jones has said.

As I already addressed in my post relating to Rush Limbaugh’s discussion over this issue, I have no doubt that alarmists have been exaggerating claims. However, Phil Jones statement is not definitive proof that climate change isn’t happening. Real Climate points out that it’s difficult to establish a statistically significant trend over a period of 15 years. (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/daily-mangle/). What this clearly suggests is that we need to continue to look at the bigger picture in order to determine whether or not climate change is happening.

The deniers appear to be saying that what Phil Jones is saying translates into “this is a hoax, we made the whole damn thing up, it’s all a lie.” I wonder how they reconcile that belief with the response Jones gives to whether or not he believes climate change is real.

“How confident are you that warming has taken place and that humans are mainly responsible?

I'm 100% confident that the climate has warmed. As to the second question, I would go along with IPCC Chapter 9 - there's evidence that most of the warming since the 1950s is due to human activity.”

Warming has taken place, it may not have taken place in the runaway manner that alarmists may claim it has over the last 15 years nonetheless it is still taking place. The rest of the interview deals with issues such as the Medieval Warming Period, an issue I addressed in another post, and Phil Jones’ arguments for why climate change is man-made.

I’m sure there is a panic among the community of those who believe climate change is real and a sense of euphoria mixed with rage among the denialists. The apparent revelation that there has been no warming since 1995, while not exactly taken out of context is misinterpreted.

Phil Jones does express doubt the assertion that the debate on climate change is over. Again, we must note that he doesn’t doubt it’s happening, it seems in this case that the debate refers to the seriousness of the issue. If we say the debate is over then we run the risk of not working towards finding more evidence to provide an even more solid picture of the situation. We would run the risk of leaving too many holes for the deniers to attack. Alarmists condemning humanity for the apparent destruction of the planet will not win over any large scale popular support, especially if such accusations are backed up by faulty claims of how we will face total climate Armageddon in the next 20-30 years.